BERNIE THE BOOK doesn’t endorse political parties, Bernie the Book exists to make a profit on whatever bookmakers are offering and quite frankly if Josef Stalin was standing in my constituency of Bury South and the bookmakers were offering 20/1 about being elected in the forthcoming General Election there is a fair chance that I would be donning my Soviet Ushanka hat and dishing out the vodka, comrade. However, June 8 is election day and there is money to be made.
Looking at the current state of the parties when Parliament was dissolved, one thing is apparent. The final breakdown of 330 Conservative, 229 Labour, 9 Liberal Democrats, 54 Scottish Nationalists and 26 Others will be drastically different on June 9. The one thing the recent nationwide local elections showed us was that Labour are in terminal decline (especially under Jeremy Corbyn), the Liberal Democrats although their share of votes did go up under Tim Farron and that UKIP is on the brink of extinction with their votes being transferred to the Tories.
No one is going to get rich at 1/33 on the Conservatives being the largest party but where we should concentrate on is the raft of markets available on the various number of Tory MPs and I would advocate a hefty wager on the TORIES RETURNING BETWEEN 351 AND 375 SEATS AT 9/2. Anything less than 350 seems unlikely and the gap over 376 is equally unlikely due to the uturns over the Tory manifesto. For the Tories to have in excess of 375 seats that would mean all the other parties having a total of 275 and if you subtract Others (around 18) and Scottish Nationalists (around 52) and Liberals (around 20) this would leave only 185 for Labour. For them to Bernie the Book JUNE 2017 81 THE BERNIE THE BOOK COLUMN MAY THE FORCE BE WITH YOU – TORIES TO GOVERN TILL 2022 lose around 45 seats is way too much. So, my first bet would be the 9/2 about Tory seats 351375.
Speaking of the demise of Labour, my next bet would centre on the next Labour leader and at today’s odds I would advocate, as I have done before, the consumate, erudite and acceptable face (very acceptable if you are a woman) of CHUKA UMUNNA at a top price of 16/1 with Bet 365. Remember, prior to the election of Corbyn he was seen as the man who would be king with the Labour party grandees and especially the Dark Lord (or in the case of this column Darth Vader) Peter Mandelson championing his cause. Speaking of uturns, who’s to say that the Labour party might not return to MILLIBAND SENIOR (David) in an attempt of stabilisation? At 25/1 he is well worth a punt.
Away from politics and thankfully away from football, this month and currently underway since June 1 is the ICC Champions Trophy hosted all across England. This oneday tournament, 50 overs a side, will certainly play to England’s strengths especially in English conditions with the likes of oneday specialists, Ben Stokes, Joss Buttler, Eoin Morgan and Joe Root amongst the batting lineup. But at 3/1 favourites they don’t make much appeal. One other side who does like English conditions is available at 10/1 and they are NEW ZEALAND who have in their ranks great exponents of the oneday game.
Although stuck in the same group as Australia and England, with only two qualifying, it is a difficult task but one of which I feel the Black Caps can overcome. Finally, as the football season comes to a close, I would ask anyone to look at the Bernie the Book Column from July 2016 where I tipped the following: Sunderland to be relegated at 9/2 Brighton for the Championship at 14/1 (which they led until the 89th minute of the final game) and I hoped you backed each way and Bolton Wanderers at 16/1 each way. Until next time.